We are living in a historic and crucial moment for the building of real, genuine, and lasting democracy in the Middle East and North Africa. This is something that many of us have been waiting for decades if not centuries, and that will affect the future of the region, and perhaps the world, also for decades if not centuries. Tunisia has the best chance of success. It should be the easiest and quickest transition: Tunisia has a lot fewer problems and many more of the ingredients for successful democracy than any other country. Tunisia can then – more quickly and more easily – become a model and a showcase for democracy in the Arab world, than can encourage and inspire others throughout the region.
resetdoc.org, May 6, 2013, Radwan A. Masmoudi, President of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy
A lot of experts (most experts) agree that if democracy does not succeed in Tunisia, it will be very difficult for it to succeed in any other Arab country. This is why I believe in a Tunisia First approach. We must make sure that Tunisia succeeds in this vital and critical transition and transformation.
It is also vital and critical for the interests of the United States and the European Union, and for the cause of peace, real stability, development, and dignity in the region that Tunisia succeeds, and therefore, the West (the US and the EU in particular, but other major countries as well) must support Tunisia economically, politically, diplomatically, and strategically in order to encourage and support this transition. Frankly, I think, it is fair to say that so far this support has been lukewarm and insufficient, and disappointing. Given the magnitude of the opportunity and the challenges, I would have thought and expected that the United States and the European Union would be much more forthcoming in their support. It is vital for peace, prosperity, and development in the entire MENA region that the democratic transition in Tunisia succeeds, and that Tunisia becomes a model and an inspiration for others in the Arab world.
We must realize that this is a long and difficult process. As we are finding out in Tunisia, removing the dictator was the first but also the easy part in this process, and the building of real, genuine, and lasting democracy is much more difficult and requires a long time… On the average ten to twenty years (if you look at the experiences of other countries) and for the case of Tunisia, I think we can be optimistic, and hope that this building and budding phase may be completed in five to ten years. So we have to patient and realize that this is not something that can be accomplished in just one year or two years.
Tunisia has many advantages (high education levels, strong women rights and involvement, small and homogenous society, a good modern infrastructure, historically open to the West and to the world, moderate Islam, and a strong record of reforms and constitutionalism, etc…). In terms of moderate Islamic perspectives, we are lucky to have one of the most moderate, pragmatic, and democratic Islamic movements and parties in the entire region. It was the first Islamic Party to advocate democracy back in 1981 (and to say that they believed that Islam and democracy are compatible). and more recently, Rached Ghannouchi gave a very important lecture at CSID, in which he said that secularity and Islam are compatible. And also the Nahdha party announced a year ago that it will not insist or require the mention of Islamic Shariah laws as a source for legislation in the new constitution. This is the most difficult and controversial issue, on which Tunisians are divided, and they simply said:
“We want to focus on what unites us in the constitution, and not what divides us, and we want a constitution for all Tunisians, Islamists and secularists, religious and non-religious, Muslims and non-Muslims, and therefore, we need to put in the constitution only things on which we all agree…” This is a major concession that I think al-Nahdha deserves a lot of credit for.
This takes me to the writing of the constitution and the possibility of building consensus around it. As you know, this has been a long and arduous road. Tunisians chose a long and difficult road on purpose. The easy way, would have been to appoint or even elect a small number of constitution scholars and experts, have them write the constitution in 1 or 2 months, and then simply put it to a vote or a referendum. You could probably get 50-60% support for it, but then you would have only succeeded in dividing the country not in writing a lasting constitution that unites the country.
What takes time is actually the dialogues and the consensus-building and give and take efforts that have to been done in order to have a final document on which at least two thirds, and hopefully even more than that – closer to 70 or 80%, agree. Because, without the real support and strong attachment of the people to the constitution, and their defense for it in the future, a constitution will be basically worth less.
On this front, I really do think that Tunisia has done it so far the right way… We have taken our time to have dialogues and negotiations and consensus building efforts, debates and discussions, about the content of the constitution, not only of course within the National Constituent Assembly (where six drafting committees of about 20 people each have been meeting almost on a daily basis) but also in the media, and in civil society… We have now a third draft that has been completed and will be presented soon to the whole assembly for further debates (clause by clause) and adoption… This process is expected to take another two or three months, and so hopefully by end of May or beginning of June, we should have a New Ratified Constitution.
The Constituent Assembly also organized hundreds of meetings and consultations with the people in the various regions, cities, and towns of the country, and even with Tunisians who living in Europe, to present the draft and get their opinions and feedback on this draft. More than 15,000 citizens and NGO’s have participated in these consultations…
Let me now turn to the role of civil society and mention what CSID did, as an example for what the very important role that I think civil society has played in the constitution drafting process. Back in July, we organized a two day National Dialogue Conference on the Constitution (over 200 people and representatives of the various parties attended this conference)…. One of the main outcomes of this conference is we identified SIX issues of disagreements (controversial issues) in the constitution, and then we organized a closed workshop for two and a half days on each one of these issues, and we invited about 30 people (10+10+10) to a private and secluded place where they can calmly discuss their differences and find a compromise that meets the needs and the requirements of each party. We also used trained facilitators (using the most sophisticated facilitation techniques and methods) to help guide the discussions and make sure that they can reach a consensus or a satisfactory compromise…. These issues ranged from women and minority rights and equality of the citizens (the issue of complementarity), to freedom of expression and the difficult question of if and how you protect religious and social values and norms (the sacred). The independent Bodies that supervise the Judiciary, the Media, and the Elections and how they should be appointed or elected, and finally, the question of the type of regime (presidential vs. parliamentarian) and the relationship between the legislative and the executive branches (and within the executive branch)…. This really worked!
I am not saying this was easy, it often was very difficult and painful, and sometimes people would get really angry, etc… but I think these activities and these dialogues helped to arrive at a solution that may not please everyone 100% but is at least satisfactory and acceptable to everyone… and everyone left happy.
Therefore, I think that Tunisia is close to achieving a miracle in the next two to three months, which will be passing a NEW constitution with overwhelming majority both from the Islamists and the secularists, and this believe me, is not an easy feast!
Finally, let me close by saying that many challenges remain and the path forward remains long and difficult, and this is why Tunisia will really need the support of its friends and allies, and of everyone who believes in democracy, human rights, and rule of law. The main challenges facing Tunisia today as I see them are:
We have a significant portion of the population that is actively working to derail the transition to democracy: remnants of the old regime, the extreme left/communists/Arab nationalists, the extreme right/salafists – roughly 25-30% of the population.
The economic challenges are also huge – The people have huge expectations for jobs and economic improvements while as we know the opposite usually happens immediately after a revolution (you enter a difficult period of instability and uncertainty which is not very conducive to growth or economic development).
Finally, the security challenges are also enormous (Libya, Algeria, and Mali around us) and these extremist groups can easily acquire arms and bring them into the country. I really think the police forces and the military are doing a wonderful job of keeping the peace and monitoring the borders and the extremist groups, but this of course will remain a very difficult and challenging task.
Despite these enormous challenges, I remain very optimistic about Tunisia and about the chances of success of the democratic Transition in Tunisia, but that we will also need the help and the support of all our friends, and that is a particularly wonderful opportunity for the United States not only to promote democracy in the Arab world, but to rebuild its relations with the Arab World and the Islamic world on much better and equal footing and terms, and rebuild the genuine trust and feelings of friendship that we once had towards each other, and that will be vital to build peace, prosperity, development, and human dignity in the future.
These are notes from the Lecture made by Dr. Radwan A. Masmoudi, at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in Washington DC, on March 14, 2013.
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